A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
