Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: several firings deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
